What threat does climate change pose for bird species throughout Europe? This question lies at the heart of a recently-released report, A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds, published by a partnership between Durham University, the RSPB and Lynx in association with the University of Cambridge, BirdLife International and the European Bird Census Council (EBCC).

The study employs a technique called 'climate envelope modeling' which enables scientists to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climate conditions. The researchers ran the model for a future climate scenario that assumes an average global temperature increase of 3°C over pre-industrial levels. The resulting predictions were startling. In the absence of immediate and aggressive action to curb climate change, the future range of most European bird species would shift almost 550 km northeast by the end of the century and would shrink in area by 20 percent.

For many European birds, such drastic changes would spell disaster. Climate change means that suitable climates to which birds and other organisms are adapted are on the move. Breeding grounds, foraging habitat, and migration stop-over sites may shift into new and sometimes unsuitable territories. The future ranges of some species are predicted to share no overlap with their current ranges. In some cases, this gradual 'habitat migration' will lead to probable extinction.

Although the report focuses its analysis to European birds, its results serve as a broader warning. The report hints at the future of all species, plant and animal alike, when faced with shifting and uncertain climatic futures.

Find out more:

• Climatic Atlas Summary (RSPB)
• A Climatic Atlas of European Breeding Birds (Lynx Edicions)
• Climate Change Study Predicts Hazy Future for Europe's Birds (BirdLife International)

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